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Modeling winter moth Operophtera brumata egg phenology: nonlinear effects of temperature and developmental stage on developmental ratePredicting demographically-sustainable rates of adaptation: can great tit breeding time keep pace with climate change?Timing in a fluctuating environment: environmental variability and asymmetric fitness curves can lead to adaptively mismatched avian reproductionAdaptive phenological mismatches of birds and their food in a warming world